Q4 2026 · updated 2 September 2026
75% of three-year Q4 winners surge again. A single prior Q4: 50%.
A product that surged in one Q4 surges again the next Q4 59% of the time. The streak is what moves it: one prior Q4 means 50%, two means 65%, three or more means 75%. Measured over 66,454 products that surged in a Q4, drawn from 557,903 clean sales-rank surges. The table below is free and ungated, with the method and every sample size.
If you got an email from us about one of your own products, this is the data behind it.
The decision is already closing: Amazon's FBA receiving cutoff for Prime Big Deal Days is September 9, and for Black Friday / Cyber Monday it is October 21.
We also publish every forward call we make and grade it against a bar fixed before the call. 168 calls posted, 148 graded, and the 32 misses stay on the board. Check the record →
How often a Q4 surge repeats
A product that surged in one Q4 surges again the next Q4 59% of the time. The average hides the signal. What predicts a repeat is the streak: how many consecutive prior Q4s the product has already surged in.
| Prior-Q4 streak | Repeats next Q4 | 95% range | Products measured |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 50% | 49–50 | n = 27,123 |
| 2 years | 65% | 64–66 | n = 10,037 |
| 3+ years | 75% | 74–76 | n = 8,662 |
| Any Q4 surge (unconditional) | 59% | 58–59 | n = 66,454 |
Read it as: of every 100 products that had surged in three or more consecutive Q4s, 75 surged again the following Q4.
How this was measured
The sample
557,903 clean sales-rank surges across 93,996 Amazon US products, built from full daily sales-rank history. A surge is sales rank improving against that product's own baseline and holding for days. One spike day doesn't count.
Deduplicated per product
Amazon variant families list what is really one product many times, which inflates any count built on ASINs. Every figure above collapses variants to one product. Dedup makes the effect stronger: +16 points deduplicated against +15 raw. Duplicate listings aren't creating it.
What a streak means
The count of consecutive prior years in which the same product showed a Q4 surge. A product that surged in Q4 2023, 2024 and 2025 carries a 3-year streak into Q4 2026.
Which products this covers
Products that are still listed and still tracked today. Per-year attrition inside the measured window is zero, so the rate is not propped up by dropping products that failed — but products that vanished years ago are absent from the universe by construction. Read it as: of products still on sale, this is how often the Q4 surge comes back. That is the same position you are in when you look one up.
What this does not tell you
It is a base rate, not a guarantee, and it says nothing about your margin, your buy-box odds or how many other sellers are about to pile onto the listing. A 75% recurrence rate still means one in four of those products does not come back.
The same mistake costs triple in October
Amazon's monthly FBA storage fee roughly triples from September to October, and the aged-inventory surcharge starts at day 181. Misjudge a trend in February and you store it cheaply. Misjudge it now and you pay peak rates through the most expensive months of the year, on units bought to sell before December.
The cheapest month to be wrong about a trend is February. The most expensive is right now.
Amazon FBA Q4 2026 receiving cutoff dates
These are Amazon's dates, not ours. Inventory not received by them is out of the event it was bought for.
Free · no card · reply in 2 business days
Send 20 ASINs. We'll tell you which ones came back last year.
Send up to 20 ASINs you're weighing for Q4. You get back, per ASIN: its Q4 streak, the week its surge usually starts, and how big that surge was. Replies go out within two business days.
What comes back
A written reply, not an autoresponder. Each ASIN scored against the same history behind the table above. Nothing is charged and no card is taken.
Your list stays yours
We don't sell inventory, we don't source, and we compete with you on nothing. Your ASINs are never resold, published or added to any feed.
Your address is used for this reply and nothing else, unless you tick the box above. Prefer plain email? Write to [email protected].
Already know you want this every week? Scryup Pro scores any ASIN instantly and sends the weekly report — $39/mo, or $290/yr with the full 1,104-product Q4 list included.